Precious metals ETCs: Analysts continue to see upside in 2012

Jan 15th, 2012 | By | Category: Commodities

Precious metals analysts expect gold prices to rise for a 12th year in a row and to reach a record average high in 2012, according to a survey by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). They are even more bullish about the prospects of the other precious metals.

The LBMA’s annual survey, entitled Forecast 2012, showed that all but 3 of 26 survey participants expected gold to hit an all-time high in 2012, with a majority of 19 of them forecasting gold to peak at over $2,000 an ounce.

The following table summarises the key findings of the survey, which indicate analysts’ views on the direction of precious metal prices for the coming year.  A total of 26 members contributed their estimates for the average price for 2012 for gold, silver, platinum and palladium.

LBMA Survey 2012

LBMA Survey results 2012

Their average gold forecast is US$1,766, a 10.2% increase compared to the price in the first week of January 2012. Analysts see even more upside for other precious metals, predicting a 17.3% increase in the price of silver and 15% and 12.3% rise in the prices of platinum and palladium respectively.

However, if you compare the average 2012 forecasts with actual average prices in 2011, you can see that analysts are broadly less bullish about the prospects for precious metals during the next 12 months than they were last year.

While analysts predict a similar rise in the price of gold (12.3%) and for the price of palladium to remain broadly unchanged (0.3%), they are forecasting a moderate fall in the average price of both silver (-3.2%) and platinum (-5.6%) for 2012 versus the average prices seen in 2011. However, these forecasts still represent upside to prices seen during the first week of 2012.

Looking back on the results of the 2011 forecast, the average forecasts by analysts were met with mixed success.  Although they correctly predicted the upward price direction for both gold and silver, actual average prices in 2011 were $115 and $5 higher respectively than they had forecast.

Analysts had also predicted an upward price movement for both platinum and palladium but average prices in 2011 turned out lower than they had forecast (by 5.4% and 11% respectively), with both metals actually recording a fall in price during the year compared with average prices in the first week of 2011.

London-listed precious metals ETPs (except where stated):


iShares Physical Gold ETC

Source Physical Gold ETC

DB-X Physical Gold ETC

ETFS Physical Gold ETP



iShares Physical Silver ETC

DB-X Physical Silver ETC

Source Physical Silver P-ETC

ETFS Physical Silver ETP


iShares Physical Platinum ETC

DB-X Physical Platinum ETC

Source Platinum P-ETC

ETFS Physical Platinum ETP


iShares Physical Palladium ETC

DB-X Physical Palladium ETC

Source Palladium P-ETC

ETFS Physical Palladium ETP

Precious Metals (Gold & Silver)

ETFS Precious Metals DJ-UBSCI ETC 

Source Precious Metals T-ETC (SIX Swiss Exchange)


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